Study of Baby and Child Rape
in South Africa
The incidence of the rape of babies and children has been reported widely in the South African press over the years. It appears some people subscribe to the belief that having sex with a virgin will cure HIV/AIDS. This is borne out by a study conducted by the University of South Africa at the Daimler Chrysler plant where 18% of those surveyed believed that having sex with a virgin would cure the disease. This is a worrying statistic and demands research to establish the extent of these belief systems and whether or not these beliefs are on the increase. The objectives of this proposal are to:
aim of this project is to produce a report describing the key drivers
for change that might be expected to impact the incidence of baby and
child rape in South Africa over the next decades. The report will
additionally attempt to model and forecast these trends.
is intended to provide background material for subsequent work,
communication campaigns and policy development in this area.
basic approach will be one of a sophisticated literature review and
analysis. That is, to scan the published body of work, select studies
of sufficient relevance and stature, extract and assess the key
elements, synthesise a description of the current state of the art and
to present the results as a basis for further thinking.
litereature review will be complemented by
Literature Survey will comprise a meta-analysis of the published body
of work and research related to Baby / Child Rape in South Africa. The
aim of this analysis will be to synthesise a view describing the key
drivers for change that might be expected to affect the incidence of
baby & child rape in South Africa over the next decades.
The Literature survey will be conducted by reviewing both paper-based and electronic documentation.
The literature survey will be conducted by Sandy Schwarer
The structured interviews will be undertaken with a number of target populations namely:
The structured interviews will be undertaken by Steve Banhegyi and Richard Lewis
Statistical Analysis will be undertaken on the quantitative data in order to determine whether there is an increase in the trend of baby/child rapes and, if so, in which segments this occurs.
The quantitative data will be made available by Statistics SA and by the South African Police Services who have both indicated that they will co-operate with this study.
The approach to Statistical Analysis will be to assemble a time series of incidence of Rape by area and by age and sex of victim. The resultant data will be input into a Neural Network and Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm. The result of these analyses is to identify any underlying clusters, patterns or trends in the data and to highlight any psychographics of interest.
Statistical Analyses will be undertaken using DataEngine 3.0 and the Statistica version 6.0 packages. Source data and the resultant analyses will be placed upon a website and members of the research community will be encouraged to use this data in their own analyses.
The Statistical Analyses will be undertaken by Steve Banhegyi.
Part of this project will require that a Systems Dynamics model be developed using the Vensim modeling tool. It is planned that the final presentation will also include a live run of the model at which time attendees will be able to see the impact and efficacy of various policy interventions.
System Dynamics is a method for studying the world around us. The central concept to system dynamics is the understanding of how all the objects in a system interact with one another. A system can be anything from a steam engine, to a bank account, to a rugby team. The objects and people in a system interact through "feedback" loops, where a change in one variable affects other variables over time, which in turn affects the original variable, and so on.
Systems Dynamics attempts to understand the basic structure of a system, and thus understand the behaviour it can produce. Many of these systems and problems can be built as models on a computer. System dynamics takes advantage of the fact that a computer model can be of much greater complexity and carry out more simultaneous calculations than can the mental model of the human mind.
The Systems Dynamics approach is not a new one and has been used with great success in a number of environments and industries. In this respect, there are a number of references and examples given. We feel it important to suggest this approach because the model which emerges from an SD approach is:
· Much more flexible, reliable and valid than a model developed using traditional tools such as excel
· Allows participants in the modeling process to better understand the variables and system being modeled
· Allows deep insight into the behaviour or and interactions between the system components.
The Modeling will be undertaken by Steve Banhegyi.
The findings and results of this proposal will be handed over to sponsors and any other interested parties. Each sponsor will be provided with a printed copy of this study. An additional electronic version of the study will be made available in Adbobe Acrobat for download through a website.
Additionally, a final presentation of the study’s results will be made at a public venue. It will be ensured that all sponsors will be mentioned during the presentation.
Sandy holds a BA(Hons) in politics(?)
Steve has Consulted since 1983 primarily for clients in the Financial Services and Public Service area specialising in Financial Modelling, Simulation, Administration, Marketing and Forecasting Systems. He has also worked extensively for government and private clients in Healthcare and Law Enforcement and Public Utilities. He has lectured in Information Systems at the University of the Witwatersrand for 4.5 years. In addition, Steve has also lectured Consumer Behaviour and Statistics. His specialist areas include Command Control Systems, Knowledge Management and Organisational Transformation.
Since 1996 Steve has partnered with Martens Thiel and Partner in Cologne who specialise in the privatisation of public utilities / municipalities in Germany. Cities consulted to by MTP include the cities of Wupperthal, Cologne, Bieleveld, Sollingen, Duisburg and Dortmund. Steve's duties and responsibilities have included Organisational Design and Restructuring, Privatisation planning, Scenario planning, negotiation with stakeholders and the facilitation of seminars.
The following organisations have indicated their support for the aims and methodology of this proposal:
study will use the following working model:
& Drivers Þ Outcomes Þ Predictions
Study done by the University of South Africa at Daimler Chrysler between May and July of 2001 focused on 498 of 4495 employees. Key points of the study included:
One of the highest per capita HIV/AIDS prevalence and infection rates in the world About 1800 new infections per day An estimated 4.5 to 6 million South Africans already HIV positive About 290000 people died because of AIDS related diseases during 2000. This is expected to rise to about 800000+ by 2008
180000 – 220000 in 1999
250000 – 300000 in 2000
340000 - 400000 in 2002
450000 – 500000 in 2004
550000 – 650000 in 2006
700000 – 850000 in 2008
750000 – 850000 in 2010
· Demographic – size and structure
A series of recent baby rapes has
stunned South Africans and left many questioning the direction its
society is going.
The report highlighted the belief
among many perpetrators that having sex with virgins can cure Aids, in
a country which has the highest number of sufferers of the disease in
The study was highly critical of the
South African Government's attitude towards HIV and Aids, which, it
said, was a major cause of its failure to make anti-retroviral drugs
widely available to rape victims.
It said regulations surrounding the
testing of suspected rapists for HIV for use as evidence in court were
"confused" and needed clarifying.
The report also said treating infant
victims of sex crimes was not enough in itself.
"Concerted action is needed to
halt this abhorrent crime," it said.
studies have used similar words to describe the research process, but
there is a wide variation in how they are interpreted. For the
purposes of this report we use the following:
studies have identified a number of
trends that are going to shape the future of HIV/AIDS
Epidemiology in South Africa. There is reasonable – albeit not
universal – agreement in the shape and direction of these trends.
Analysis and cross-correlation showed that the trends could be grouped
thematically into the following minimum set of key drivers:
Based on statistics presented by the UN at the end of 1999, 4,200,000 Adults and children were infected by HIV in South Africa of whom 4,100,000 were Adults aged 15-49. The Adult infection rate (%) was 19.94%. Of the total number of adults infected, 2,300,000 were women and approximately 95,000 were children. It is extimated that 250,000 people died in South Africa from AIDS in 1999.
United Nations Epidemiological Fact Sheets on HIV/AIDS and
sexually transmitted infections
The following approach is used in the modeling task:
1. Task Definition – A Broad Description of the modeling task and its major components, variables and subsystems
2. Component Behavious Definition – This identifies the key variables in the system and plots their behaviour over time
3. Focus – this will involve the creation of a focusing statement for the project
4. Structure identification & Modeling – this involves a deep study and basic systems modeling of the system under study. When the model starts to behave like the system under study, we may then assume that our model has become more reliable and more valid.
5. Intervention planning – Once the model has been developed (step 6) we may then start to simulate variuous policy decisions using the model
Appendix XIII – Nelspruit Child Rape Epidemic
It is reported that out of 215 cases of rape heard in the Nelspruit regional court in 2001, only 11 convictions were secured by the state. It is further reported that the Department of Social Welfare cannot cope with the rising tide of child rapes and increasing poverty in general.
Given the thesis that the incidence of rapes are generally eveny distributed over time, it appears that in 2002 there will be a significantly grater incidence of rape than in 2001.
Source Greater Rape Intervention Project
(GRIP), Financial Mail March 8th, 2002 Page 26