The incidence of the rape of babies and children has been reported widely in the South African press over the years. It appears some people subscribe to the belief that having sex with a virgin will cure HIV/AIDS. This is borne out by a study conducted by the University of South Africa at the Daimler Chrysler plant where 18% of those surveyed believed that having sex with a virgin would cure the disease. This is a worrying statistic and demands research to establish the extent of these belief systems and whether or not these beliefs are on the increase. The objectives of this proposal are to:

Conduct a thorough search on the literature of the beliefs associated with HIV/AIDS being cured as a result of having sex with a virgin
Appraise whether or not there is an increasing acceptance of these beliefs
Identify which populations or segments of the population ascribe to these beliefs
Highlight any differences and / or similarities in these belief systems by demographics, affiliation, education etc..
Obtain an understanding of what led to these beliefs becoming an urban legend or part of the conventional wisdom
To interview a sample of individuals who have been successfully prosecuted for the crime of baby / child rape
Evaluate wheter there is an increase in the trend of baby/child rapes and, if so, in which segments this occurs

Aim

The aim of this project is to produce a report describing the key drivers for change that might be expected to impact the incidence of baby and child rape in South Africa over the next decades. The report will additionally attempt to model and forecast these trends.

This is intended to provide background material for subsequent work, communication campaigns and policy development in this area.

Approach

The basic approach will be one of a sophisticated literature review and analysis. That is, to scan the published body of work, select studies of sufficient relevance and stature, extract and assess the key elements, synthesise a description of the current state of the art and to present the results as a basis for further thinking.

The litereature review will be complemented by

Statistical analysis of available data from Statistics SA and the South African Police Services

Qualitative research including structured interviews

The development of a model of the phenomenon that will allow policymakers to test the efficacy of their interventions.

Methodology

Literature Survey

The Literature Survey will comprise a meta-analysis of the published body of work and research related to Baby / Child Rape in South Africa. The aim of this analysis will be to synthesise a view describing the key drivers for change that might be expected to affect the incidence of baby & child rape in South Africa over the next decades.

The Literature survey will be conducted by reviewing both paper-based and electronic documentation.

The literature survey will be conducted by Sandy Schwarer

Structured Interviews

The structured interviews will be undertaken with a number of target populations namely:

Those individuals successfully prosecuted for baby / child rape and who have been incarcerated. 10 Interviews have been budgeted for this study.
A sample of 10 Sangomas (Witchdoctors) and 10 Inyangas (Herbalists). A total of 20 Interviews of Sangomans and Inyangas have been budgeted for in this study.
A sample of AIDS patients who are currently undergoing treatment for AIDS and AIDS related complications in Gauteng Hospitals. A total of 60 interviews of AIDS patients has been budgeted for here.
A sample of 20 healthcare professionals working with AIDS. These professionals will need to have been involved with AIDS patients for 5 years or more.

The structured interviews will be undertaken by Steve Banhegyi and Richard Lewis

Statistical Analysis

Statistical Analysis will be undertaken on the quantitative data in order to determine whether there is an increase in the trend of baby/child rapes and, if so, in which segments this occurs.

The quantitative data will be made available by Statistics SA and by the South African Police Services who have both indicated that they will co-operate with this study.

The approach to Statistical Analysis will be to assemble a time series of incidence of Rape by area and by age and sex of victim. The resultant data will be input into a Neural Network and Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm. The result of these analyses is to identify any underlying clusters, patterns or trends in the data and to highlight any psychographics of interest.

Statistical Analyses will be undertaken using DataEngine 3.0 and the Statistica version 6.0 packages. Source data and the resultant analyses will be placed upon a website and members of the research community will be encouraged to use this data in their own analyses.

The Statistical Analyses will be undertaken by Steve Banhegyi.

Modeling - Systems Dynamics Modeling

Part of this project will require that a Systems Dynamics model be developed using the Vensim modeling tool. It is planned that the final presentation will also include a live run of the model at which time attendees will be able to see the impact and efficacy of various policy interventions.

System Dynamics is a method for studying the world around us. The central concept to system dynamics is the understanding of how all the objects in a system interact with one another. A system can be anything from a steam engine, to a bank account, to a rugby team. The objects and people in a system interact through "feedback" loops, where a change in one variable affects other variables over time, which in turn affects the original variable, and so on.

Systems Dynamics attempts to understand the basic structure of a system, and thus understand the behaviour it can produce. Many of these systems and problems can be built as models on a computer. System dynamics takes advantage of the fact that a computer model can be of much greater complexity and carry out more simultaneous calculations than can the mental model of the human mind.

The Systems Dynamics approach is not a new one and has been used with great success in a number of environments and industries. In this respect, there are a number of references and examples given. We feel it important to suggest this approach because the model which emerges from an SD approach is:

· Much more flexible, reliable and valid than a model developed using traditional tools such as excel

· Allows participants in the modeling process to better understand the variables and system being modeled

· Allows deep insight into the behaviour or and interactions between the system components.

The Modeling will be undertaken by Steve Banhegyi.

Findings and Results

The findings and results of this proposal will be handed over to sponsors and any other interested parties. Each sponsor will be provided with a printed copy of this study. An additional electronic version of the study will be made available in Adbobe Acrobat for download through a website.

Additionally, a final presentation of the study’s results will be made at a public venue. It will be ensured that all sponsors will be mentioned during the presentation.

Staffing

Sandy Schwarer

Sandy holds a BA(Hons) in politics(?)

Steve Banhegyi

Steve has Consulted since 1983 primarily for clients in the Financial Services and Public Service area specialising in Financial Modelling, Simulation, Administration, Marketing and Forecasting Systems. He has also worked extensively for government and private clients in Healthcare and Law Enforcement and Public Utilities. He has lectured in Information Systems at the University of the Witwatersrand for 4.5 years. In addition, Steve has also lectured Consumer Behaviour and Statistics. His specialist areas include Command Control Systems, Knowledge Management and Organisational Transformation.

Since 1996 Steve has partnered with Martens Thiel and Partner in Cologne who specialise in the privatisation of public utilities / municipalities in Germany. Cities consulted to by MTP include the cities of Wupperthal, Cologne, Bieleveld, Sollingen, Duisburg and Dortmund. Steve's duties and responsibilities have included Organisational Design and Restructuring, Privatisation planning, Scenario planning, negotiation with stakeholders and the facilitation of seminars.

Richard Lewis

Project Sponsors

The following organisations have indicated their support for the aims and methodology of this proposal:

CATHCA – The Catholic Health Care Association

Study Model

This study will use the following working model:

Input data Þ Trends & Drivers Þ Outcomes Þ Predictions & Explorations

Professional Fee

Project Component	Professional Fee
Literature Survey, Summarisation and Writeup	30000
Structured Interviews	45000
Statistical Analysis	25000
Report Writing / Presentation including venue costs	20000
Expenses
Translation and interpreting fees	15000
Travel Costs	30000
Misc. Disbursements	10000

TOTAL	R 175,000.00

Appendix I : Sample Study at Daimler Chrysler

Study done by the University of South Africa at Daimler Chrysler between May and July of 2001 focused on 498 of 4495 employees. Key points of the study included:

18% of those surveyed believed that having sex with a virgin would cure the disease
8,7% of Daimler Chrysler’s employees are HIV positive or have full blown AIDS
20% of those surveyed believed that the disease could be cured via the use of traditional african medicine
Few of those surveyed would change their sexual behaviour despite the disease
Respondents felt that health care professionals had failed in raising awareness about the disease
There appears to be a lack of faith in the efficacy of condoms

Source Business Day 27/02/2002 Page 3

Appendix II : AIDS in South Africa

One of the highest per capita HIV/AIDS prevalence and infection rates in the world About 1800 new infections per day An estimated 4.5 to 6 million South Africans already HIV positive About 290000 people died because of AIDS related diseases during 2000. This is expected to rise to about 800000+ by 2008

Source – UNISA Bureau of Market Research

Appendix III : Number of AIDS Deaths in South Africa

180000 – 220000 in 1999

250000 – 300000 in 2000

340000 - 400000 in 2002

450000 – 500000 in 2004

550000 – 650000 in 2006

700000 – 850000 in 2008

750000 – 850000 in 2010

Source – UNISA Bureau of Market Research

Appendix IV : Reasons for Hight Prevalence of AIDS in South Africa

Social and family disruption
High mobility and good transport
High poverty and low education levels
High level of STDs, low status of women
Low contraceptive prevalence
Many sexual partners
Culture and risk behavior
Fear of admitting status (denial)

Source – UNISA Bureau of Market Research

Appendix V : Key Uncertainties

HIV/AIDS parameters, progress and epidemiological pattern
Institutional capacity to deal with it
Efficacy of drugs and vaccines
Efficacy of macro-, meso- and micro- responses to HIV/AIDS
Multipliers and mediating variables
Economy, education, business

Source – UNISA Bureau of Market Research

Appendix VI : Impact of HIV / AIDS

· Demographic – size and structure

Labour supply and demand - outsourcing
Skills availability and skills formation
Income impacts
Expenditure and savings patterns
Health sector – cost and effort
Entrepreneurship Economic structure and capital intensification
Government expenditure foci
Delivery modes and affordability (economy of scale effects)
Factor flight and lower GDP per capita
Development and poverty
Priorities of people (medicines vs. education)
Formal sector behavior

Source – UNISA Bureau of Market Research

Appendix VII : Results of HIV/AIDS in South Africa

Four to eight million less people by 2010
Loss of 400000 highly skilled people and entrepreneurs
Strong growth in unemployment and poverty
Decline in business confidence
Impact on economic growth and development
Economic development and instability
Productivity and production

Source – UNISA Bureau of Market Research

Appendix VIII : News Story BBC Virgin Myth

A series of recent baby rapes has stunned South Africans and left many questioning the direction its society is going.

The report highlighted the belief among many perpetrators that having sex with virgins can cure Aids, in a country which has the highest number of sufferers of the disease in the world.

The study was highly critical of the South African Government's attitude towards HIV and Aids, which, it said, was a major cause of its failure to make anti-retroviral drugs widely available to rape victims.

It said regulations surrounding the testing of suspected rapists for HIV for use as evidence in court were "confused" and needed clarifying.

The report also said treating infant victims of sex crimes was not enough in itself.

"Concerted action is needed to halt this abhorrent crime," it said.

Source http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_1781000/1781032.stm

Appendix IX : Definitions and core concepts

Many studies have used similar words to describe the research process, but there is a wide variation in how they are interpreted. For the purposes of this report we use the following:

Input data: Observations, raw data, empirical evidence, sources etc. that are then analysed / synthesised to produce trends. An example of input data would be mean summer temperatures for the last 50 years.
Trends: Trajectories, extrapolations, projections, and possibly even predictions, which are continuous and (usually) monotonic. An example trend would be ‘The increasing proportion of the World’s population living in developing countries’.
Drivers: Used here to identify the meta factors or groups of trends that share a common theme. An example would be ‘Demographics’.
‘Wild cards’: (Relatively) abrupt changes of particular significance, these include potential catastrophes and other high-impact, low-probability events, sometimes termed ‘wildcards’. An example would be the Chernobyl accident.
Outcomes: A generic term for predictions, future ‘worlds’ and scenarios. These usually draw on a number of trends and events.

Appendix X : Assessment of Key Drivers

Previous studies have identified a number of trends that are going to shape the future of HIV/AIDS Epidemiology in South Africa. There is reasonable – albeit not universal – agreement in the shape and direction of these trends. Analysis and cross-correlation showed that the trends could be grouped thematically into the following minimum set of key drivers:

Demographics
Environmental Change
Economics
Science and Technology.
National and International Governance.
Perceptions, Beliefs, Values and Attitudes.

Appendix XI : AIDS in South Africa

Based on statistics presented by the UN at the end of 1999, 4,200,000 Adults and children were infected by HIV in South Africa of whom 4,100,000 were Adults aged 15-49. The Adult infection rate (%) was 19.94%. Of the total number of adults infected, 2,300,000 were women and approximately 95,000 were children. It is extimated that 250,000 people died in South Africa from AIDS in 1999.

Source: United Nations Epidemiological Fact Sheets on HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections

Appendix XII : Systems Dynamics Approach

The following approach is used in the modeling task:

1. Task Definition – A Broad Description of the modeling task and its major components, variables and subsystems

2. Component Behavious Definition – This identifies the key variables in the system and plots their behaviour over time

3. Focus – this will involve the creation of a focusing statement for the project

4. Structure identification & Modeling – this involves a deep study and basic systems modeling of the system under study. When the model starts to behave like the system under study, we may then assume that our model has become more reliable and more valid.

5. Intervention planning – Once the model has been developed (step 6) we may then start to simulate variuous policy decisions using the model

Appendix XIII – Nelspruit Child Rape Epidemic

It is reported that out of 215 cases of rape heard in the Nelspruit regional court in 2001, only 11 convictions were secured by the state. It is further reported that the Department of Social Welfare cannot cope with the rising tide of child rapes and increasing poverty in general.

Nelspruit Child Rape Epidemic
Age (years)	No of Rapes (2001)	Jan and Feb (2002)
<5	45	12
6-10	70	8
11-15	104	18
16-18	66	10
19-30	102	10
31-40	54	10
>41	36	1
Total	477	69

Given the thesis that the incidence of rapes are generally eveny distributed over time, it appears that in 2002 there will be a significantly grater incidence of rape than in 2001.

Source Greater Rape Intervention Project (GRIP), Financial Mail March 8^th, 2002 Page 26